In China We (Don’t) Trust

　　Hangzhou， China

　　One of the standard lines about China’s economy is that the Chinese are good at copying， but they could never invent a Hula-Hoop. It’s not in their DNA， we are told， and their rote education system reinforces that tendency. I’m wondering about that： How is it that a people who invented papermaking， gunpowder， fireworks and the magnetic compass suddenly only became capable of assembling iPods？ I’m wondering if what’s missing in China today is not a culture of innovation but something more basic： trust.

　　When there is trust in society， sustainable innovation happens because people feel safe and enabled to take risks and make the long-term commitments needed to innovate. When there is trust， people are willing to share their ideas and collaborate on each other’s inventions without fear of having their creations stolen. The biggest thing preventing modern China from becoming an innovation society， which is imperative if it hopes to keep raising incomes， is that it remains a very low-trust society.

　　I’ve been struck at how many Chinese businesspeople and investors have volunteered that point to me this week. China is caught in a gap between its old social structure of villages and families， which created its own form of trust， and a new system based on the rule of law and an independent judiciary. The Communist Party destroyed the first but has yet to build the second because it would mean ceding the party’s arbitrary powers. So China has a huge trust deficit.

　　To see what happens when you introduce just a little more trust in this society， spend a day， as I just did， participating in the “AliFest” — the annual gathering of thousands of Chinese entrepreneurs who are linked together in the giant Chinese e-commerce Web siteAlibaba.com. Founded in 1999， Alibaba says its sales this year could top eBay and Amazon.com combined. This happened， in part， because it has built trusted， credible markets of buyers and sellers inside China， connecting consumers， inventors and manufacturers who would have found it hard to do transactions before.

　　Alibaba has three major businesses： Taobao.com and Tmall.com， which together constitute a giant online marketplace where anyone in the world can go to buy or sell anything — from Procter & Gamble selling toothpaste to Chinese companies offering their engineering prowess. The Tao companies this year are expected to move some $150 billion in merchandise between buyers and sellers， mostly in China.

　　The second is Alibaba.com， where， if you want to make rubber sandals that play “The Star Spangled Banner，” you click on Alibaba and it will link you with dozens of Chinese shoemakers that will compete for your business.

　　And， lastly， there is Alipay， a Chinese version of PayPal that can enable， for example， a small Chinese manufacturer in the hinterland to sell its goods to a Chinese consumer in Shanghai. The buyer puts his money in escrow with Alibaba and it is released to the seller only when the buyer says he got the goods he ordered. Presto： trust. What has been the impact？ There are more than 500 million Chinese Taobao users and 600 million Alipay accounts.

　　While here in Hangzhou， I visited the workshop of Robert Luo， the president of Classic-Maxim， a firm he started to make kitschy wall art for hotels， using foreign designs. Luo used to drum up sales by flying to trade shows， but， in 2006， he got a huge American order through the Alibaba platform， enabling him to greatly expand his business. He has since shifted from doing outsourced artwork for others to hiring Chinese and foreign artists to produce his own original designs. “We design so much now” — outdoor art， solar art — and “we’ve applied for so many U.S. patents，” he said.

　　There are two trends to watch from all this： One， argued Ming Zeng， Alibaba’s chief strategist， is that Alibaba — which now serves more than 100 million consumers daily， through 6.5 million retail shops connected to 20 million manufacturers — is， in effect， creating “a virtual combination industrial park and online marketplace，” where anyone in China or abroad can come to invent， collaborate or buy and sell goods or services.

　　Alibaba， Zeng predicted， will eventually connect in some way with Facebook， Amazon， eBay， Apple， Baidu， LinkedIn and others to create a giant trusted virtual “global commercial grid，” where individuals and companies will offer their talents and buy and sell products， designs and inventions.

　　Eventually， Zeng argued， “every individual will have to find a way to succeed” on this global grid. “National boundaries will offer you no protection.”

　　The other trend is that the Chinese will be big players on this grid. The creation of global trusted business frameworks like Alibaba is starting to enable a new generation of Chinese innovators — who are low cost， but high skilled — to extend their reach. We’ve seen cheap labor out of China； now we’re going to see more cheap genius.

　　Which is why Phillip Brown and Hugh Lauder， in a recent essay on Eurozine.com， argued that a big shift of the global labor market is under way， in which “many of the things we thought could only be done in the West can now be done anywhere in the world， not only more cheaply but sometimes better.”

　　中国的信任危机

　　中国杭州

　　中国经济增长的一个重要特点是：擅于模仿，却不能创造自己的品牌。据我们所知，这并不是因为他们没有天分，而是他们死记硬背的教育模式催生了这股趋势。我很惊讶为什么这个曾经发明了造纸术、火药、爆竹和指南针的民族突然变得只能改装ipod？我也很惊奇难道中国人正在丢失的不是创新文化而是一种基本的品德---信任？

　　诚信在，创新就会源源不断。因为在这种背景下，人们会有安全感，能够冒险创新、立志创新。诚信在，人们就会乐意分享他们的观念，相互借鉴各自的创意，丝毫不用担心他们的创意会遭到剽窃。阻挡中国成为创新性国家的主要问题在于她自身的低诚信问题，如果中国要继续发展这种局面就急需改善。

　　这一周很多中国商人和投资家都不约而同的向我反映了这一问题，对此我深有感触。旧中国农村和家庭社会结构创造了旧中国独有的诚信体系。而新的社会体系建立在法治和司法独立的基础上，现在中国陷入到了新旧社会体系的泥淖中。共产党废除了旧体制建立了新制度，因为新制度能够遏制一党专政。自此中国也背上了巨大的信任危机。

　　抽出一天的时间看一看为社会注入一些诚信元素后会发生什么。就像我所做的那样，参加阿里巴巴的交易会，这一盛会每年都有数以千计的与中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴有合作的中国企业家参加。成立于1999年的阿里巴巴称它今年的销量超过了易趣和亚马逊的销量总和。之所以会有这种成就很大程度上是因为它在中国建立了可靠稳健的买家和卖家市场，从而将消费者、销售商和生产商连接在了一起，在此之前三者很难达成交易。

　　阿里巴巴主要有三大商业领域：首先是淘宝和天猫，这二者共同构成了一个巨大的网络市场，在这里世界上的任何人都可以在这里买或卖任何商品。例如，宝洁公司可以销售牙刷，中国企业可以推广他们的工程技术。估计今年淘宝公司的商品资金流动主要在中国，资金流动额约达15万亿元。再次是阿里巴巴，如果你想生产竞争力强大的橡胶拖鞋，那么你就在这里查找信息，你会找到许多与你竞争的中国制鞋商。

　　最后是支付宝，例如中国版本的支付宝可以使一个来自中国穷乡僻壤的制造商将他的产品卖给上海的消费者。商品购买者将钱转入阿里巴巴的委托方，委托方在确定购买者收到他订购的商品后才将钱转给销售商。这完全靠的是信任。这些有什么影响呢？现在中国有5亿淘宝用户和6亿支付宝用户。在杭州时我拜访了经典美心的创始人罗伯特.罗，他成立了一个公司使用外国技术为宾馆设计有朦胧感的壁纸。过去罗常常飞到各地参加商业展览来吸引订单，然而，2006年他通过阿里巴巴平台就接到了美国的一个大订单，从而使他极大扩大了他的事业。他已经从雇佣中国劳工和外国艺术家做艺术品外包服务转型到生产他自己设计的产品。他说，我们设计了许多产品，包括户外艺术品、日光系艺术品，并且我们还申请了许多美国专利。

　　这些事情能表明两个趋势：阿里巴巴首席策划人曾明说，首先每天阿里巴巴通过与两千万生产商相连的六百五十万零售店，为一亿消费者服务，这实际上创造了一个虚拟的工业园与网络市场想结合的模式。在这里世界上的每一个人都能寻找合作伙伴、买卖商品或服务。

　　曾明估计，阿里巴巴最终会在某种程度上与脸谱网、亚马逊、易趣、苹果、百度、关系网以及其他的网站合作，以构建一个庞大的、可信赖的、虚拟的“全球商业框架”。在这里无论是个人还是企业都能展示他们的才智，买卖商品、设计和发明。

　　最后，曾明说，每个人都将能在这个全球框架内找到成功之道，国家保护主义不复存在。另一个趋势是，中国将会是这个大框架里的大玩家。全球可靠的商业框架，像阿里巴巴，开始促进新一代的中国创新家施展他们的才能，他们薪资低但技能娴熟。我们已经看到了中国的廉价劳动力，现在我们会发现越来越多的廉价技术人员。

　　因此，飞利浦.布朗和休.劳德在最近发表在欧元杂志网上的一篇文章中称：全球劳动力市场将会经历一场大变革。在这场大变革中许多我们认为只能在西方国家发生的事情，可以发生在世界的任何地方，不仅成本更低，有时还可以更好。 

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