Oil analysts desperate for any insight into the murky world of China‘s economy are resorting to old-fashioned shoe-leather research, often with a high-tech twist.
渴望深入了解中国经济真实状况的石油分析师正在诉诸传统方式,如实地考察,同时还会运用一些高科技的手段。
Unraveling the mystery of Chinese demand, one big factor in oil‘s recent price spike, has become a full-time task for many oil analysts. Crude oil reached more than $70 a barrel on Friday for the first time since November, and analysts predict it could reach $80 by the end of this year.
解开中国需求的谜团现在已成为许多石油分析师全部的工作重心。中国的需求是近期油价飙升的一个重要因素。自去年11月份以来,原油价格首次在突破了每桶70美元,分析师预计年底时可能达到80美元。
While signs of life in the U.S. economy have helped drive some of the gains, analysts agree that peeking behind the curtain in China is the key to predicting oil prices.
尽管美国经济的复苏迹象也是油价上涨的原因之一,但分析师认为了解中国幕后的情况是预测油价的关键。
China is estimated to account for 9.3% of the world‘s oil use, yet it releases no actual consumption data. That has led analysts to turn to Google Earth to track the movements of oil tankers and to travel across China meeting with low-level oil industry officials. To predict agricultural production, firms are studying ways to use satellite, weather and soil data throughout China.
据估计,中国占全球石油使用量的9.3%,不过中国并未发布实际消费数据。这让分析师转向谷歌地球(Google Earth)跟踪油轮的航行,并在中国各地采访基层石油行业管理人员。为了预测农业生产,一些公司就在研究使用中国各地的卫星、气候和土壤数据的方法。
These analysts were early in spotting a rise in demand in China this spring and believe demand will stay strong, justifying the current oil price and possibly pushing it higher.
这些分析师早在今年春季就发现了中国需求上升的迹象,并认为需求还将继续保持强劲,这为目前油价所处的水平提供了充分的理由,并可能继续推高油价。
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