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It’s a tall order: Over the next few decades, the world will need to wean itself from dependence on fossil fuels and drastically reduce greenhouse gases. Current technology will take us only so far; major breakthroughs are required.
这是一个离谱的要求:在今后几十年里,世界需要逐步摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,显著减少温室气体。目前的技术只能让我们走到这一步了,我们需要拥有重大的技术突破。
What might those breakthroughs be? Here’s a look at five technologies that, if successful, could radically change the world energy picture.
这些突破可能是些什么?列出了五项技术,如果成功,它们将会大大改变世界的能源格局。
They present enormous opportunities. The ability to tap power from space, for instance, could jump-start whole new industries. Technology that can trap and store carbon dioxide from coal-fired plants would rejuvenate older ones.
这些技术能带来巨大的机遇。例如,从太空获取能量的技术可能迅速催生全新的产业。从火电厂捕获和储存二氧化碳的技术可能会令较为老旧的电厂重获新生。
Success isn’t assured, of course. The technologies present difficult engineering challenges, and some require big scientific leaps in lab-created materials or genetically modified plants. And innovations have to be delivered at a cost that doesn’t make energy much more expensive. If all of that can be done, any one of these technologies could be a game-changer.
当然,这些技术并不一定能取得成功,它们目前都面临着不少难题,一些技术需要在实验室创造的材料和或转基因植物方面实现一些重大突破。而且,创新的成本不能让能源变得太贵。如果能做到这一切,其中任何一项技术都可以改变游戏规则。
SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER 太空利用太阳能
For more than three decades, visionaries have imagined tapping solar power where the sun always shinesin space. If we could place giant solar panels in orbit around the Earth, and beam even a fraction of the available energy back to Earth, they could deliver nonstop electricity to any place on the planet.
30多年来,梦想家就一直设想在太阳永远能照耀到的地方──太空中──利用太阳能。如果我们能在环绕地球的轨道上安置巨大的太阳能电池板,将其中哪怕是一小部分的可用能源传回地球,它们可以向地球上的任何地方提供不间断的电力。
The technology may sound like science fiction, but it’s simple: Solar panels in orbit about 22,000 miles up beam energy in the form of microwaves to earth, where it’s turned into electricity and plugged into the grid. (The low-powered beams are considered safe.) A ground receiving station a mile in diameter could deliver about 1,000 megawattsenough to power on average about one million U.S. homes.
这项技术听起来可能像是科幻小说,但其实很简单:在22,000英里之外的太阳能电池板将能源以微波的形式传回地球,然后转化为电力并进入到电网中。(低能量的光束被认为是安全的。)直径1英里的地面接收站可以提供约1,000兆瓦电力,足以供应平均约100万户美国家庭的使用。
The cost of sending solar collectors into space is the biggest obstacle, so it’s necessary to design a system lightweight enough to require only a few launches. A handful of countries and companies aim to deliver space-based power as early as a decade from now.
将太阳能收集器送至太空的成本是最大的障碍,因此有必要设计重量足够轻,可以减少发射次数的系统。已经有些国家和公司希望最早在未来10年内提供这种太空电力。
ADVANCED CAR BATTERIES 高级汽车电池
Electrifying vehicles could slash petroleum use and help clean the air (if electric power shifts to low-carbon fuels like wind or nuclear). But it’s going to take better batteries.
电动汽车可以降低石油消耗量,有助于空气清洁(如果电力来自于风能和原子能等低碳燃料的话)。但它需要使用更好的电池。
Lithium-ion batteries, common in laptops, are favored for next-generation plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles. They’re more powerful than other auto batteries, but they’re expensive and still don’t go far on a charge; the Chevy Volt, a plug-in hybrid coming next year, can run about 40 miles on batteries alone. Ideally, electric cars will get closer to 400 miles on a charge. While improvements are possible, lithium-ion’s potential is limited.
笔记本电脑中常用的锂离子电池是下一代充电式混合动力车和电动车的理想之选。它们比其它汽车电池的电力更充足,但也更贵,不过充电后的行驶距离仍不够远;将于明年上市雪佛兰(Chevy) Volt混合动力车凭电池可行驶约40英里。理想情况下,电动车充电一次最好能行驶近400英里。尽管仍有改进的空间,但锂离子电池的潜力有限。
One alternative, lithium-air, promises 10 times the performance of lithium-ion batteries and could deliver about the same amount of energy, pound for pound, as gasoline. A lithium-air battery pulls oxygen from the air for its charge, so the device can be smaller and more lightweight. A handful of labs are working on the technology, but scientists think that without a breakthrough they could be a decade away from commercialization.
作为一种替代产品,锂空气电池的性能是锂离子电池的10倍,可以提供与汽油同等的能量。锂空气电池从空气中吸收氧气充电,因此这种电池可以更小、更轻。不少实验室都在研究这种技术,但科学家认为,如果没有重大突破,要想实现商用可能还需要10年。
UTILITY STORAGE 电力储存技术
Everybody’s rooting for wind and solar power. How could you not? But wind and solar are use-it-or-lose-it resources. To make any kind of difference, they need better storage.
所有人都在支持风能和太阳能技术,你怎能置身事外?但风能和太阳能是那种要么利用要么流失的资源。要改变现状,它们需要更好的储存技术。
Scientists are attacking the problem from a host of anglesall of which are still problematic. One, for instance, uses power produced when the wind is blowing to compress air in underground chambers; the air is fed into gas-fired turbines to make them run more efficiently. One of the obstacles: finding big, usable, underground caverns.
科学家正在从诸多角度应对这个问题,但各个方面都面临难题。举例来说,一项技术是通过风能将地下洞穴内的空气压缩产生电能;将空气输送至燃气涡轮机以提高燃烧功效。这其中面临的一个障碍是:要寻找到大空间以及可用的地下洞穴。
Similarly, giant batteries can absorb wind energy for later use, but some existing technologies are expensive, and others aren’t very efficient. While researchers are looking at new materials to improve performance, giant technical leaps aren’t likely.
类似的,还有能够吸收风能待日后使用的巨型电池,但当前的一些技术成本昂贵,其他技术则不是很有效率。尽管研究人员正在寻找新材料以提高性能,但要出现显著技术飞跃的可能性不大。
Lithium-ion technology may hold the greatest promise for grid storage, where it doesn’t have as many limitations as for autos. As performance improves and prices come down, utilities could distribute small, powerful lithium-ion batteries around the edge of the grid, closer to customers.
锂离子技术可能是电网存储前景最好的技术,在这个领域内该技术不会面临像在汽车业中那样多的限制。随着性能提高和价格降低,公共事业机构可能会向电网边缘,较为靠近用户的地方输送小体积大容量的锂离子电池。
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