Beijing - Jack Rodman has cashed in on property busts from Los Angeles to Tokyo, buying and selling soured loans and counseling other investors. Now he‘s convinced the Beijing real estate market is about to tumble. Rodman figures about half of the city‘s commercial space is vacant, and to prove it he keeps a slide show of 55 empty office buildings in the Chinese capital on his computer. There are an additional dozen, he says, that he hasn‘t had time to photograph. "I took these pictures to try to impress upon people the massive amount of oversupply," says Rodman, president of Global Distressed Solutions, which advises investors on Chinese property.
　　全球不良资产解决方案公司总裁杰克·罗德曼（Jack Rodman）在洛杉矶和东京做房地产生意，业务包括买卖过期房贷和向投资者提供咨询服务。如今，他认为北京的房地产市场即将暴跌。罗德曼指出，北京约半数的商业房地产面积处于空置状态。为了证明这一点，他把北京城里55栋空置的写字楼拍成幻灯片放在自己的电脑上。他声称还有10多栋这样的写字楼尚未来得及拍照。罗德曼表示：“我拍这些照片的目的是想让人们明白供给已经严重过剩了。”
　　Much of the $1.4 trillion in loans made by Chinese banks last year—with considerable encouragement from officials aiming to boost growth—was spent on skyscrapers and other commercial property. Now empty buildings are sprouting across the mainland. Beijing had an office vacancy rate of 22.4% in the third quarter, the ninth-highest of 103 markets tracked by broker CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) (CBG). That figure doesn‘t include projects about to open, such as the 74-story China World Tower 3, Beijing‘s tallest building. "There‘s a monumental property bubble and fixed-asset investment bubble under way," says James Chanos, founder of New York hedge fund Kynikos Associates. "And deflating that gently will be difficult at best."
　　中国银行去年提供了1.4万亿贷款，其中许多都用来修建摩天大楼等商业地产。如今，中国大陆到处是空置的楼宇。北京去年第三季度的写字楼空置率达到 22.4%，在房地产经纪商世邦魏理仕公司（CBRE）跟踪的103个市场中位列第九位。这一数字还不包括即将完工的工程，比如建成后将成为北京第一高楼的国贸三期74层大楼。纽约尼克斯联合基金公司创始人查诺斯声称：“（中国）出现了巨大的房地产泡沫，固定资产泡沫也已开始膨胀。即便是在最好地情况下也很难以温和的手段遏制泡沫膨胀。”
　　Worried Beijing policymakers are trying to choke off the supply of funds fueling the property boom. On Jan. 27, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the chief oversight body, called on banks to curb loan growth. They should "strictly" follow real estate lending policies, the commission said in a notice on its Web site. "The Chinese authorities are clearly trying to bring excessive bank lending under control," says Stephen Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia (MS).
　　忧心忡忡的中国政府正努力控制房地产投资。1月27日，中国银监会要求各银行限制贷款增长，“严格”遵循房地产贷款政策。摩根史坦利亚洲区总裁斯蒂芬·罗奇（Stephen Roach）表示：“中国当局显然正在努力控制过多的银行贷款。”

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