北京天译时代翻译公司整理了“拉加德理查德·汀伯比演讲（中英对照）”，希望对大家有所帮助。
　　A New Multilateralism for the 21st Century: the Richard Dimbleby Lecture
　　21 世纪新的多边主义：理查德?汀伯比演讲
　　By Christine Lagarde
　　Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
　　国际货币基金组织总裁
　　克里斯蒂娜?拉加德
　　Good evening. It is a great honor to be invited to deliver this year’s Dimbleby Lecture, and I would like to thank the BBC and the Dimbleby family for so kindly inviting me—and especially David Dimbleby for his warm words of introduction.
　　各位晚上好。非常荣幸应邀做今年的汀伯比演讲，我要感谢英国广播公司和汀伯比一家的盛情邀请，还要特别感谢大卫?汀伯比热情的介绍辞。
　　This evening, I would like to talk about the future. Before looking ahead, however, I would like to look back—for the clues to the future can often be read from the tea leaves of the past.
　　今晚，我想谈谈未来。不过，在展望未来之前，我想回顾一下往昔——正所谓前事不忘，后事之师。
　　I invite you to cast your minds back to the early months of 1914, exactly a century ago. Much of the world had enjoyed long years of peace, and giant leaps in scientific and technological innovation had led to path-breaking advances in living standards and communications. There were few barriers to trade, travel, or the movement of capital. The future was full of potential.
　　请大家回忆一下整整一个世纪之前，1914 年初的情景。世界多数地方维持了多年的和平，科学和技术革新的飞跃带来了生活水平和通信能力的巨大提升。当时，贸易、旅行和资本流动的壁垒很少。前路充满了希望。
　　Yet, 1914 was the gateway to thirty years of disaster—marked by two world wars and the Great Depression. It was the year when everything started to go wrong. What happened?
　　但是，1914 年是之后三十年大灾难（两次世界大战和大萧条）的起始年。正是在这一年，一切事情都开始往错误的方向走去。到底发生了什么？
　　What happened was that the birth of the modern industrial society brought about massive dislocation. The world was rife with tension—rivalry between nations, upsetting the traditional balance of power, and inequality between the haves and have-nots, whether in the form of colonialism or the sunken prospects of the uneducated working classes.
　　当时，现代工业社会的诞生带来了大规模的社会错位。各种紧张关系此起彼伏——国家间的敌对打乱了传统的力量平衡，有产者与无产者的不平等（不论是体现在殖民主义的冲突，还是体现在未受教育劳动阶级的悲惨前途）愈发严重。
　　By 1914, these imbalances had toppled over into outright conflict. In the years to follow, nationalist and ideological thinking led to an unprecedented denigration of human dignity. Technology, instead of uplifting the human spirit, was deployed for destruction and terror. Early attempts at international cooperation, such as the League of Nations, fell flat. By the end of the Second World War, large parts of the world lay in ruins.
　　到了 1914 年，这些不平衡因素终于激化演变成了直接的战争。之后，民族主义者和意识形态之争造成了史无前例的人类尊严的堕落。科技不但没有提升人类精神，而且成为造成毁灭与恐惧的工具。国际合作方面的初步努力，如国联，也宣告失败。二战结束时，全世界很多地方成为了废墟。
　　I now invite you to consider a second turning point—1944. In the summer of that year, the eminent economist, John Maynard Keynes, and a delegation of British officials, embarked on a fateful journey across the Atlantic. The crossing was risky—the world was still at war and enemy ships still prowled the waters. Keynes himself was in poor health.
　　我还想请大家回忆一下另一个转折点——1944 年。是年夏天，著名的经济学家约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯和英国官员代表团踏上了一次横跨大西洋的具有划时代意义的旅程。此次跨洋旅行是有风险的，当时的世界仍弥漫着战火的硝烟，海上仍有敌人的船舰。凯恩斯本人的健康状况也不佳。
　　But he had an appointment with destiny—and he was not going to miss it.
　　但是，这是一次与命运的风云际会，他不准备失约。
　　The destination was the small town of Bretton Woods in the hills of New Hampshire, in the northeastern United States. His purpose was to meet with his counterparts from other countries. Their plan was nothing less than the reconstruction of the global economic order.
　　此行的终点是美国东北部的新罕布什尔州的丘陵小镇布雷顿森林。他的目的是约见来自其他国家的同行。他们的计划是重建全球经济秩序。
　　The 44 nations gathering at Bretton Woods were determined to set a new course—based on mutual trust and cooperation, on the principle that peace and prosperity flow from the font of cooperation, on the belief that the broad global interest trumps narrow self-interest.
　　在布雷顿森林集会的 44 个国家决心在相互信任和合作的基础上，本着合作可以带来和平和繁荣的原则，以及全球利益胜过狭隘的自我利益的这一信念，开辟出一条新的道路。
　　This was the original multilateral moment—70 years ago. It gave birth to the United Nations, the World Bank, and the IMF—the institution that I am proud to lead.
　　这就是最初的多边时刻，发生在 70 年前。在这一伟大时刻诞生了联合国、世界银行和我们的基金组织——能成为这样一个机构的首脑令我无比自豪。
　　The world we inherited was forged by these visionary gentlemen—Lord Keynes and his generation. They raised the phoenix of peace and prosperity from the ashes of anguish and antagonism. We owe them a huge debt of gratitude.
　　我们继承的这个世界是由这些充满远见卓识的绅士——凯恩斯勋爵及其同代人建立的。正是他们，在痛苦和敌对的残垣断壁中唤起了和平与繁荣的凤凰的涅槃重生。对于他们，我们无比崇敬。
　　Because of their work, we have seen unprecedented economic and financial stability over the past seven decades. We have seen diseases eradicated, conflict diminished, child mortality reduced, life expectancy increased, and hundreds of millions lifted out of poverty.
　　正是他们的努力，在过去 70 年里，我们获得了史无前例的经济与金融稳定。一些疾病被根除、战争冲突逐渐减少、儿童死亡率降低、人均预期寿命延长、亿万人口摆脱了贫困。
　　Today, however, we are coming out of the Great Recession, the worst economic crisis—and the great test—of our generation. Thanks to their legacy of multilateralism—international cooperation—we did not slip into another Great Depression that would have brought misery across the world yet again. We all passed the test—rejecting protectionism, reaffirming cooperation.
　　然而，我们现今仍在努力走出大衰退，这个我们这代人所经历的最严重经济危机和所面对的最艰巨挑战。由于多边主义的历史传承，即国际合作，我们躲开了另一场大萧条，从而使世界避免了又一次的浩劫。我们禁受住了这次考验，没有因为挫折而倒向保护主义，再次坚定了合作的意志。
　　Yet there will be many more tests ahead. We are living through a time every bit as momentous as that faced by our forefathers a century ago. Once again, the global economy is changing beyond recognition, as we move from the industrial age to the hyperconnected digital age.
　　但是，未来还有更多的考验。我们所经历的时代，其重要性丝毫不亚于我们的先辈在一个世纪前的所在时代。全球经济又一次出现了我们始料未及的变化，我们正在从工业时代走向超级联结的数字时代。
　　Once again, we will be defined by how we respond to these changes.
　　历史又走到了这样一种时刻：我们的是非功过，取决于我们对这些变化的处理方式。
　　As we look ahead toward mid-century, toward the world that our children and grandchildren will inherit from us, we need to ask the question: what kind of world do we want that to be—and how can we achieve it?
　　在展望本世纪中叶，畅想我们的孩子和孙子从我们手里继承的世界时，我们要问自己
　　的问题是：我们希望那时有一个什么样的世界，怎样才能实现这样的世界？
　　As Shakespeare says in Julius Caesar: “On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”
　　正如莎士比亚在《凯撒大帝》中所说的：“人间大小事，有其潮汐；把握涨潮，则万事无阻；错过了，一生的航程，就困于浅滩与苦楚。”
　　This evening, I would like to talk about two broad currents that will dominate the coming decades—increasing tensions in global interconnections and in economic sustainability. I would then like to make a proposal that builds on the past and is fit for the future: a strengthened framework for international cooperation.
　　今晚，我想谈谈将主导未来几十年的两大涌流——即不断加剧的全球互联性紧张关系以及全球经济持续发展紧张关系然后，我会借鉴以往的经验教训提出一个着眼未来的解决方案：一个加固的国际合作框架。
　　In short, a new multilateralism for the 21st century.
　　简言之，是 21 世纪新的多边主义。
　　Tensions in global interconnections
　　全球互联性的紧张关系
　　I will start with the first major current—tensions in global interconnections, between a world that is simultaneously coming closer together and drifting further apart.
　　首先，我要说的是第一大涌流，全球互联性的紧张关系，即，世界日益紧密的趋势与渐行渐远趋势之间的矛盾。
　　By “coming together”, I mean the breakneck pattern of integration and interconnectedness that defines our time. It is really the modern counterpart of what our ancestors went through in the fateful years leading up to 1914.
　　所谓“日益紧密”，是指我们这个时代迥异于其他时期的鲜明的一体化和相互联结的特征。实际上，这也正是我们的先辈在 1914 年之前的时代所经历的世界大格局的现代版本。
　　Just look at the great linking of the global economy over the past few decades.
　　的确，全球经济在过去几十年的高度相联就是明证。
　　For one thing, world trade has grown exponentially. We are now in a world of integrated supply chains, where more than half of total manufactured imports, and more than 70 percent of total service imports, are intermediate goods or services. A typical manufacturing company today uses inputs from more than 35 different contractors across the world.
　　例如，世界贸易呈现指数级增长。目前世界的供应链高度一体化，其中制造品进口的一半以上及服务总进口的 70%是中间产品或中间服务。目前，一个典型的制造企业用的投入品来自世界各地 35 个以上的不同承包商。
　　Financial links between countries have also grown sharply. In the two decades before the crisis in 2008, international bank lending—as a share of world GDP—rose by 250 percent. And we should expect this to rise further in the future, as more and more countries dive into the financial nexus of the global economy.
　　国家之间的金融联系也急剧上升。在 2008 年金融危机发生前的二十年里，国际银行贷款占 GDP 的比例提高了 250%。随着更多国家加入全球经济的金融链条，此比例还会上升。
　　We are also living through a communications revolution. It has produced a starburst of interconnections, with information traveling at lightning speed from limitless points of origin. The world has become a hum of interconnected voices and a hive of interlinked lives.
　　我们还在经历一场通信革命。由于信息可以从无限的起始点以闪电般的速度传输，信息革命产生了互连星爆。世界成为了一种各种声音互相关联的发声体，成为了一种人们生活相互关联的组织体。
　　Today, 3 billion people are connected to each other on the internet. Three million emails are sent each second. There are almost as many mobile devices as people on the planet, and the “mobile mindset” is deeply embedded in all regions of the world. In fact, the highest rates of mobile penetration are in Africa and Asia.
　　今天，有三十亿人口通过互联网联系。每一秒有三百万封电子邮件被发送。移动设备数与地球上的人口数几乎相同，“移动观念”深深植根于世界所有地区。事实上，非洲和亚洲的移动电话普及率是最高的。
　　Back in 1953, when people tuned into the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, their experience was mediated essentially by one voice—the masterful Richard Dimbleby, whom we honor today. In contrast, when Prince George arrived last summer, his birth was heralded by more than 25,000 tweets a minute!
　　早在 1953 年，当人们收听英国女王伊丽莎白二世加冕礼时，信息基本上由一个声音在传播，即今天我们纪念的理查德?汀伯比大师。与此相比，当乔治王子去年夏天出生时，每分钟会发出 25,000 多个相关推文！
　　With such a dizzying pace of change, we can sympathize with Violet Crawley, Downton Abbey’s countess, who wondered whether the telephone was “an instrument of communication or torture!”
　　这样的变化速度令人目不暇接，我们终于可以理解当年的维奥莱特?克劳利（《唐顿庄园》中古怪的太伯爵夫人）的话了——她疑惑电话到底是“沟通工具，还是刑具”。
　　This brave new world—this hyperconnected world—offers immense hope and promise.
　　这个勇敢的新世界，这个超级互联的世界，给我们提供了无限的希望和机遇。
　　Stronger trade and financial connections can bring tangible benefits to millions of people—through higher growth and greater convergence of living standards. The dream of eliminating extreme poverty is within our reach.
　　强劲的贸易和金融联系可以给很多人带来好处，如增长提高、生活水平加快趋同步伐。实现消除极端贫困的梦想也因此真正有机会实现。
　　The communications revolution too can be a potent force for good. It can empower people, unleash creativity, and spur change. Think about how twitter messages helped to galvanize the participants in the Arab Spring, or how social media carrying the message of Malala in Pakistan pricked the conscience of the entire world.
　　通信革命也能成为一股强大的正面力量。它可以给予人们力量，发挥创造力，推动变革。回想一下推特信息如何帮助激励了阿拉伯之春的参与者，报道巴基斯坦少女马拉拉故事的社交媒体如何唤起了全世界的良知。
　　It is not all bright skies, however. When linkages are deep and dense, they become hard to disentangle. In such an interwoven labyrinth, even the tiniest tensions can be amplified, echoing and reverberating across the world—often in an instant, often with unpredictable twists and turns. The channels that bring convergence can also bring contagion.
　　然而，金无足赤，凡事皆有弊。当联系非常紧密时，它们变得难以分解。在这种复杂交织的迷宫里，即使是最微小的紧张关系都可能被放大，在世界各地产生回响，而且这种情况往往在瞬间发生，经常会导致不可预知的变数。产生趋同效应的渠道同样也能导致传染效应。
　　Because of this, the global economy can become even more prone to instability. If not managed well, financial integration can make crises more frequent and more damaging. Consider, for example, where and how the recent global financial crisis began—in the mortgage markets of suburban America—and spread all around the world.
　　正因为如此，全球经济会更易于陷入不稳定。如果管理不善，金融一体化可能导致危机发生更加频繁，并更具破坏性。举个例子，此次全球金融危机竟然是从美国郊区的抵押贷款市场开始，一直蔓延到全世界。
　　The communications revolution too has a dark side. It can sow discord, instill factionalism, and spread confusion. Instead of an online forum for ideas and expression, we could have a virtual mob or a global platform to promote intolerance or hatred. Instead of a beautiful symphony, we could have an ugly cacophony.
　　通信革命也有不好的一面。它可以引发争论、灌输宗派主义和传播混乱。它可能成为一个网络暴民聚集地或一个加剧偏狭或仇恨的全球平台，而不是一个让人们表达思想和想法的在线论坛。我们听到的可能是丑陋的杂音，而不是优美的交响曲。
　　So the key challenge for us in all this will be to magnify the good and diminish the bad.
　　因此，我们面临的重大挑战是发扬好的一面，减少坏的一面。
　　If managing the great “coming together” were not difficult enough, it will be further complicated by the other current that I mentioned: the tendency for the world to grow further apart, even as it draws closer together.
　　管理这种宏大规模的“日益紧密”进程本身就已十分困难，但我前面提到的另一股涌流让其更加复杂：即世界虽然日益紧密，但同时也渐行渐远。
　　This is a paradox. What do I mean? I mean the diffusion of power across the world—toward more diverse geographical regions and more diverse global stakeholders. Unlike with integration, our forefathers experienced nothing like this. It is a defining feature of our hyperconnected age.
　　这是一个悖论。这是什么意思呢？我的意思是，力量在整个世界越发扩散，分散到更多的地理区域和更多的全球利益相关者。与一体化的潮流不一样的是，这个新趋势也是我们的先辈所未曾遭遇的。它是我们这个超级联结时代的迥异特征。
　　One of the major megatrends of our time is the shift in global power from west to east, and from north to south—from a few to a handful, to a myriad.
　　我们这个时代的主要大趋势是全球权力正在从西方转向东方，从北方转向南方——从少数人到大群人，进而到亿兆民众。
　　Fifty years ago, the emerging markets and developing economies accounted for about a quarter of world GDP. Today, it is half, and rising rapidly—very likely to two-thirds within the next decade.
　　五十年前，新兴市场和发展中经济体约占全球 GDP 的四分之一，如今占到一半，且其比重还在迅速上升，很可能在下一个十年占到全球 GDP 的三分之二。
　　The diffusion of power also goes beyond country relationships, extending to a whole host of networks and institutions that inhabit the fabric of global society.
　　权力的扩散还超越了国家关系，扩展到全球社会结构中的一系列网络和机构。
　　Think about the rising nexus of non-government organizations, which can use the communications revolution to extend their reach and amplify the voice of civil society. In just 20 years, the number of these groups associated with the United Nations rose from 700 to nearly 4000.
　　想一想非政府组织网络的崛起，它们可以利用通讯革命扩大影响范围，提高民间社会的声音。在短短的 20 年时间里，与联合国有联系的这些团体数目从 700 个上升到近4000 个。
　　Think about the growing power of multinational corporations, who now control two-thirds of world trade. According to some research, 12 multinational corporations now sit among the world’s top 100 economic bodies in terms of sheer size.
　　想想跨国公司不断提高的实力，它们现在控制着世界贸易的三分之二。一些研究认为，就规模而言，目前世界排名前 100 位的经济实体中有 12 家是跨国公司。
　　Think about powerful cities—31 of them are also on that list of the top 100. And they continue to grow. By 2030, about 60 percent of the world’s population will live in cities.
　　还有那些大城市，有 31 个也在 100 强的名单上。它们在继续扩张。到 2030 年，世界人口的约 60%将居住在城市。
　　Think also about the rising aspirations of citizens who feel increasingly part, yet not quite adjusted to, our interconnected “global village”. By 2030, the global middle class could top 5 billion, up from 2 billion today. These people will inevitably demand higher living standards, as well as greater freedom, dignity, and justice. Why should they settle for less?
　　人们越来越感觉到自己成为相互联系的“地球村”的一部分，但却没有完全适应。到2030 年，全球中产阶级将达到 50 亿，今天是 20 亿。这些人们将必然要求更高的生活水平、更大程度的自由、尊严和公平。他们有什么理由要退而求其次呢？
　　This will be a more diverse world of increasing demands and more dispersed power.
　　世界将会更加多元化，需求将增加，权力将更加分散。
　　In such a world, it could be much harder to get things done, to reach consensus on issues of global importance.
　　在这样的世界中，要把事情做成很难，就全球重大问题达成共识更难。
　　The risk is of a world that is more integrated—economically, financially, and technologically—but more fragmented in terms of power, influence, and decision-making. This can lead to more indecision, impasse, and insecurity—the temptations of extremism—and it requires new solutions.
　　我们的风险在于，这是一个在经济、金融和科技方面更加一体化的世界，但同时，这也是一个在权力、影响力和决策方面更加分散的世界。这会导致更多的决断困难、僵局和不安定——如极端主义的倾向——因此也需要用新的方法予以解决。
　　Tensions in economic sustainability
　　经济持续发展的紧张关系
　　We will also need solutions for the second broad current that will dominate the next few decades—tensions in economic sustainability, between staying strong and slowing down.
　　我们还需妥善处理主导未来几十年经济持续发展的第二大涌流——经济持续发展的紧张关系，即，经济强劲增长和减缓之间的紧张关系。
　　Of course, the immediate priority for growth is to get beyond the financial crisis, which began six years ago and is still with us, as the markets remind us these days. This requires a sustained and coordinated effort to deal with problems that still linger—a legacy of high private and public debt, weak banking systems, and structural impediments to competitiveness and growth—which have left us with unacceptably high levels of unemployment.
　　当然，增长的当务之急是走出六年前开始的、至今仍挥之不去（最近的市场情况就是一个明证）的金融危机。这要求我们通过持续和协调的努力解决目前的既有问题——居高不下的私人和公共债务、不健全的银行系统，以及不利于竞争力和增长的结构性阻碍因素——正是这些问题导致了无法接受的高失业率。
　　You are used to the IMF talking about these issues, I know. Tonight, however, I want to set these issues in the context of longer-term impediments. Three in particular—demographic shifts, environmental degradation, and income inequality. As with global interconnections, some of these problems would look familiar to our ancestors—rising inequality, for example. But others are new and novel—such as pressures on the environment.
　　我知道，你们已经习惯了基金组织谈论这些问题。但今晚，我结合一些长期阻碍因素来讨论这些问题。尤其是，人口变化、环境恶化和收入不平等。与全球关联的问题一样，我们的先辈也曾面对过类似的上述部分问题，如不平等性加剧。但是，另一些问题则是全新的，如环境压力等。
　　Demographics
　　人口变化
　　Let me start with demographics. Over the next three decades, the world’s population will get much larger and much older.
　　首先从人口变化谈起。在接下来的三十年里，世界人口将更多，年龄会更大。
　　In 30 years time, there will be about two billion more people on the planet, including three quarters of a billion people over the age of 65. By 2020, for the first time ever, there will be more old people over 65 than children under 5.
  　在未来 30 年的时间里，地球上会增加 20 亿人，其中 7.5 亿人口将超过 65 岁。到 2020年，65 岁以上老人的数目将首次超过 5 岁以下儿童的数目。
　　The geographical distribution will also change—young populations in regions like Africa and South Asia will increase sharply, while Europe, China, and Japan will age and shrink. In the coming decades, we expect India to surpass China, and Nigeria to surpass the United States, in terms of population. And both China and India will start aging in the near future.
　　地区分布也将发生变化，非洲和南亚地区的年轻人口将大幅增加，而欧洲、中国和日本的人口将老龄化和减少。在未来几十年，我们预计印度人口将超过中国，尼日利亚将超过美国。中国和印度在不久的未来都将进入老龄化。
　　This can create problems on both ends of the demographic spectrum—for youthful countries and for graying countries.
　　这将给处在人口统计两端的国家，即人口年轻的国家和老龄化的国家带来问题。
　　Right now, the young countries are seeing a “youth bulge”, with almost three billion people—half the global population—under 25. This could prove a boon or a bane, a demographic dividend or a demographic time bomb.
　　眼下，人口年轻的国家正在出现“青少年人口暴增”，几乎有 30 亿人（占全球人口的一半）在 25 岁以下。这既可以是福音，也可以是祸端，它可能成为人口红利，也可能成为人口定时炸弹。
　　A youthful population is certainly fertile ground for innovation, dynamism, and creativity. Yet everything will depend on generating enough jobs to satisfy the aspirations of the rising generation.
　　年轻的人口构成肯定为创新、活力和创造力提供了沃土。然而，一切都将取决于创造足够的就业机会，满足年轻一代的愿望。
　　This calls for a single-minded focus on improving education—and, in particular, on the potentially massive effects of technological change on employment.
　　这需要我们专心改善教育，特别是，要关注技术变革将对就业产生的潜在巨大影响。
　　Looking ahead, factors such as the internet revolution, the rise of smart machines, and the increasing high-tech component of products will have dramatic implications for jobs and the way we work. Yet governments are not thinking about this in a sufficiently strategic or proactive way.
　　展望未来，互联网革命、智能机器的兴起，以及产品的高科技成份日益提高都会给就业和工作方式带来巨大影响。然而，政府尚未足够战略性地或主动地考虑这个问题。
　　Aging countries will have different problems, of course. They will face slowing growth precisely at a time when they need to take care of a retiring generation—people who have contributed to society and expect, as part of the social contract, to be provided with decent social services as they move into their twilight years. This too can create tensions.
　　老龄化国家面临的肯定是截然不同的难题。经济放缓的时点将与一代人走向退休的时点重合——退休一代人口曾为社会作出贡献，因此期望作为社会契约的一部分，在他们进入晚年时会获得足够的社会服务。这也可能造成紧张关系。
　　Migration from young to old countries might help to release some pressure at both ends. Yet it could also inflame tensions—the brain drain could sap productive potential from source countries and a sudden influx of people could erode social cohesion in host countries and fuel nationalism. Yes, migration can help, but it must be managed well.
　　年轻化国家的人口移居老龄化国家可能有助于减缓这两类国家的压力。然而，这也可能会加剧紧张局势，人才流失可能会削弱来源国的生产潜力，人口的突然涌入也可能削弱东道国的社会凝聚力，激起民族主义。是的，移民可以起到有益作用，但一定要处理好。
　　Environmental degradation
　　环境恶化
　　So demographics is one potential long-term obstacle. A second is environmental degradation, the newest and greatest challenge of our era. We all know what is at stake here. More people with more prosperity will stretch our natural environment to the limit.
　　因此，人口变化是一个潜在的长期障碍。另一个是环境恶化，这也是我们这个时代的一个最新和最严重的难题。我们都知道这其间的利害关系。更多的人口和更多的发展将导致对自然环境的使用达到极限。
　　We can expect growing pressure points around water, food, and energy scarcity as the century progresses. By 2030, almost half of the world’s population will live in regions of high water stress or shortage.
　　可以想象，在本世纪向前推进的过程中，水、食物和能源的稀缺压力将越来越大。到2030 年，世界人口的近一半将生活在供水压力很大或水短缺的地区。
　　Hovering over all of this is the merciless march of climate change. Because of humanity’s hubris, the natural environment, which we need to sustain us, is instead turning against us.
　　抛开上述所有不谈，我们还要面对残酷的气候变化。因为人类的傲慢，我们一直所赖以生存的自然环境正在给予我们惩罚。
　　Make no mistake, it is the world’s most vulnerable people who will suffer most from the convulsions of climate. For example, some estimates suggest that forty percent of the land now used to grow maize in sub-Saharan Africa will no longer be able to support that crop by the 2030s. This will have hugely disruptive implications for African livelihoods and lives.
　　毫无疑问，因为气候变化而遭受最重打击的恰恰是世界上最脆弱的人口。例如，一些估计表明，到 21 世纪 30 年代，目前在撒哈拉以南非洲地区用于种植玉米土地的 40%将不再能够支持该作物。这将对非洲人民的生存和生活产生严重不利影响。
　　A few years back, Prince Charles gave this very Dimbleby lecture. He used the occasion to make an impassioned plea to respect the natural law of ecological sustainability. “In failing the earth,” he said, “we are failing humanity”.
　　几年前，查尔斯王子曾在此发表汀伯比演讲。他借机做了慷慨激昂的呼吁，呼吁人们尊重生态可持续发展的自然法则。他说：“抛弃地球就是抛弃人性。”
　　The bad news is that we are getting perilously close to the tipping point. The good news is that it is not too late to turn the tide—even with rising seas.
　　坏消息是，我们正在危险地接近倾覆的临界点。好消息是，即使浪潮汹涌，我们仍然有机会扭转乾坤。
　　Overcoming climate change is obviously a gigantic project with a multitude of moving parts. I would just like to mention one component of it—making sure that people pay for the damage they cause. Why is this aspect—getting the prices right—so important? Because it will help to reduce the harm today and spur investment in the low-carbon technologies of tomorrow.
　　克服气候变化显然是一项涉及各种活动组件的巨大工程。我只想提其中的一个因素，即确保人们为其所造成的损害付出代价。为什么正确定价如此重要？因为这将有助于减少今天的损害，刺激将来对低碳技术的投资。
　　Phasing out energy subsidies and getting energy prices right must also be part of the solution. Think about it: we are subsidizing the very behavior that is destroying our planet, and on an enormous scale. Both direct subsidies and the loss of tax revenue from fossil fuels ate up almost $2 trillion in 2011—this is about the same as the total GDP of countries like Italy or Russia! The worst part is that these subsidies mostly benefit the relatively affluent, not the poor. Reducing subsidies and properly taxing energy use can be a win-win prospect for people and for the planet.
　　逐步取消能源补贴、实现能源合理定价必须成为解决方案的一部分。想想看：我们正在为摧毁地球的行为提供规模巨大的补贴。油气方面的直接补贴以及税收损失，在2011 年消耗了将近两万亿美元，这相当于意大利或俄罗斯的 GDP 总量！最糟糕的是，这些补贴的主要受益者是那些富人，而不是穷人。因此，减少能源补贴、对能源使用进行合理征税，对人类和地球都是一个双赢的解决方案。
　　Income inequality
　　收入不平等
　　Demographics and degradation of the environment are two major long-term trends—disparity of income is the third. This is really an old issue that has come to the fore once again.

　　人口变化和环境恶化是两大长期趋势，收入不均是第三个。这是一个又摆回桌面上的老话题。

　　We are all keenly aware that income inequality has been rising in most countries. Seven out of ten people in the world today live in countries where inequality has increased over the past three decades.

　　我们都强烈感受到，收入不平等在大多数国家都有所加剧。当今世界人口的十分之七生活在收入不平等程度在过去 30 年升高的国家。

　　Some of the numbers are stunning—according to Oxfam, the richest 85 people in the world own the same amount of wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population.
　　有些数字很惊人，根据乐施会，世界最富有的 85 个人拥有的财富等于较穷的一半世界人口的总收入。
　　In the US, inequality is back to where it was before the Great Depression, and the richest 1 percent captured 95 percent of all income gains since 2009, while the bottom 90 percent got poorer. In India, the net worth of the billionaire community increased twelvefold in 15 years, enough to eliminate absolute poverty in this country twice over.
　　在美国，不平等程度又回升到了大萧条之前的水平，自 2009 年以来，最富有的 1%的人口获得了收入增益的 95%，而下层的 90%人口越来越穷。在印度，亿万富翁的净值在 15 年里增加了 12 倍 ，这笔财富足以使两倍于该国绝对贫困人口的人脱贫。
　　With facts like these, it is not surprising that inequality is increasingly on the global community’s radar screen. It is not surprising that everyone from the Confederation of British Industry to Pope Francis is speaking out about it—because it can tear the precious fabric that holds our society together.
　　有了这些事实，国际社会日益关注收入不平等问题就不奇怪了。也正是因为这些事实，从英国工业联合会到弗朗西斯教皇都在谈论这个问题，因为收入不平等会破坏社会凝聚所依赖的珍贵的组织结构。
　　Let me be frank: in the past, economists have underestimated the importance of inequality. They have focused on economic growth, on the size of the pie rather than its distribution. Today, we are more keenly aware of the damage done by inequality. Put simply, a severely skewed income distribution harms the pace and sustainability of growth over the longer term. It leads to an economy of exclusion, and a wasteland of discarded potential.
　　恕我直言：过去，经济学家们低估了不平等的重要性。他们专注于经济增长，重视饼的大小，而不是饼的分配。今天，我们更加深切地感受到了不平等造成的损害。简单地说，严重扭曲的收入分配损害了长期增长速度和增长的可持续性。它会导致经济缺乏包容性，使经济潜力丧失殆尽。
　　It is easy to diagnose the problem, but far more difficult to solve it.
　　诊断问题不难，更难的是解决问题。
　　From our work at the IMF, we know that the fiscal system can help to reduce inequality through careful design of tax and spending policies. Think about making taxation more progressive, improving access to health and education, and putting in place effective and targeted social programs. Yet these policies are hard to design and—because they create winners and losers—they create resistance and require courage.
　　基金组织的分析认为，通过精心设计的税收和支出政策，财政制度可以减少不平等。可以提高税收的累进性，让更多的人获得卫生和教育服务，并制定有效的和有针对性的社会计划。然而，这些政策很难设计，并且，政策行动会形成赢家和输家，因此会遭遇阻力，推进这些行动需要极大的勇气。
　　Nevertheless, we need to get to grips with it, and make sure that “inclusion” is given as much weight as “growth” in the design of policies. Yes, we need inclusive growth.
　　然而，我们需要正视这个问题，确保在政策设计过程中，“包容性”获得的重视程度不亚于“增长”。是的，我们需要包容性增长。
　　More inclusion and opportunity in the economic life also means less cronyism and corruption. This must also rise to the top of the policy agenda.
　　经济生活要实现更大的包容性和给予更多机会，则必须减少任人唯亲和腐败。这必须成为政策议程的优先目标。
　　There is one more dimension of inequality that I wish to discuss here—one that is close to my heart. If we talk about inclusion in economic life, we must surely talk about gender.
　　我还想在这里讨论不平等的另一视角，这是一个我非常关心的问题。在谈论经济发展的包容性时，我们必须谈到性别问题。
　　As we know too well, girls and women are still not allowed to fulfill their potential—not just in the developing world, but in rich countries too. The International Labor Organization estimates that 865 million women around the world are being held back. They face discrimination at birth, on the school bench, in the board room. They face reticence of the marketplace—and of the mind.
　　我们清楚地知道，女孩和妇女仍然不能充分发挥自己的潜力，不仅在发展中国家，在富裕国家也如此。据国际劳工组织估计，全世界 8.65 亿妇女受到约束。她们在出生时、在学校、在高管层都面临歧视。她们面临市场和意识上的无形阻碍。
　　And yet, the economic facts of life are crystal clear. By not letting women contribute, we end up with lower living standards for everyone. If women participated in the labor force to the same extent as men, the boost to per capita incomes could be huge—27 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, 23 percent in South Asia, 17 percent in Latin America, 15 percent in East Asia, 14 percent in Europe and Central Asia. We simply cannot afford to throw away these gains.
　　然而，生活中的经济账也一清二楚。不让女性做贡献，我们的生活水平最终会下降。如果女性能与男人同样程度地参与劳动力市场，可以很大程度地促进人均收入提高，在中东和北非是 27%，在南亚是 23%，在拉丁美洲是 17 %，在东亚是 15%，在欧洲和中亚是 14%。我们实在不能无故放弃这些收益。
　　“Daring the difference”, as I call it—enabling women to participate on an equal footing with men—can be a global economic game changer. We must let women succeed: for ourselves and for all the little girls—and boys—of the future. It will be their world—let us give it to them.
　　我们应向这种差别提出挑战，让女性同男性一样参与工作，而这可能会改变全球经济的未来。我们必须让女性获得成功，这是为了我们自己，也是为了未来的所有小女孩和男孩。未来的世界是他们的，让我们给他们这样一个世界。
　　A Multilateralism for a New Era
　　新时代的多边主义
　　I have talked tonight about the main pressure points that will dominate the global economy in the years to come—the tension between coming together and drifting apart; and the tension between staying strong and slowing down. I have talked about pressures that would have seemed familiar a century ago, and some that are entirely new.
　　今晚我讲了将在未来若干年里将主导全球经济的两个主要压力——越走越近和渐行渐远之间的紧张；保持强劲增长和增长减缓之间的紧张。我刚才谈的一些压力点在一个世纪前似乎就已存在过，而另一些压力则是全新的。
　　Now, how do we manage these pressure points? Where are the solutions?
　　那么，我们应如何来处理这些压力点？解决方案在哪里？
　　Overcoming the first tension really boils down to a simple question: do we cooperate as a global family or do we confront each other across the trenches of insularity? Are we friends or are we foes? Overcoming the second tension requires us to face common threats that are not bound by borders. Do we face adversity together, or do we build yet more borders and Maginot Lines that will be mere illusionary protections?
　　克服第一种紧张可以归结为一个简单的问题：我们是以一个全球大家庭的方式合作，还是画地为牢，彼此对抗？我们是朋友还是敌人？克服第二种紧张要求我们齐心面对那些超越边界的共同威胁。面对困难，我们是一起并肩战斗，还是筑起更多高墙和马奇诺防线，天真地幻想能独善其身？
　　The response to both tensions is therefore the same: a renewed commitment to international cooperation; to putting global interest above self-interest; to multilateralism.
　　因此，解决两种紧张的方法是一致的：再次坚定承诺国际合作、把全球利益置于自身利益之上、采取多边主义。
　　As Martin Luther King once said, “We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.”
　　正如马丁?路德?金说过的，“我们都无可逃避地困在一个彼此联络的网中，共同的命运将我们罩在一起。一件事情能直接影响一个人，也同时间接影响着所有的人”。
　　This is really an old lesson for a new era. At such a momentous time as this, we need to choose the ethos of 1944 over 1914. We need to rekindle the Bretton Woods spirit that has served us so well.
　　这是一个适用于新时代的老箴言。在这样一个关键时刻，我们需要崇尚的是 1944 年的风气，而不是 1914 年的。我们需要让布雷顿森林精神，这个我们因之获益良多的精神，在我们的时代重新燃起。
　　That does not mean, however, that we need to go back to the drawing board.
　　然而，这并不意味着我们需要白手起家，从头开始。
　　Thanks to the inheritance of history, we have specific, working, forms of cooperation at hand. Again, think about the United Nations, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization—and of course the IMF. We might call these concrete—or “hard”—forms of global governance.
　　由于历史的传承，我们目下就有具体的、有效的合作方式——例如联合国、世界银行、世界贸易组织，当然还有基金组织。我们不妨称其为“有形的”或“硬的”全球治理工具。
　　We also have a number of “soft” instruments, such as the G20 at one end and networks of non-government organizations at the other. These entities have no formal mandates or legal powers of enforcement, but they do have value. They can move quickly and they can wedge open the doors of dialogue. And, as Winston Churchill famously said, “to jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war”!
　　我们也有一些“软”工具，如 20 国集团，再例如非政府组织网络。这些实体没有正式的授权，也没有执法权力，但它们确实有价值。他们可以快速行动，他们可以开启对话的大门。而且，正如温斯顿?丘吉尔的名言，“吵吵总比打打好”！
　　We have seen the power of multilateralism in action, both “hard” and “soft”. For an example of soft cooperation, we need look no further than right here in London five years ago, when the G20 countries rallied to turn back the tide of crisis, and made sure the world did not slip into a second Great Depression.
　　我们已经见证了多边主义的力量，无论是“硬的”还是“软的”。至于软合作的典范，我们只需要回顾五年前的伦敦，当时 20 国集团国家一起商讨如何抗击危机浪潮，确保世界不会陷入第二次大萧条。
　　As for more concrete forms, I invite you to consider the historic role played by the IMF down through the years—helping Europe after the war, the new nations of Africa and Asia after independence, the former eastern bloc after the Iron Curtain fell, and Latin America and Asia after crippling crisis. During the current crisis, we made 154 new lending commitments, disbursed $182 billion to countries in need, and provided technical assistance to 90 percent of our member nations. And we have 188 of them.
　　至于更“有形的”形式，我请你们思考基金组织曾发挥的历史性作用：战后帮助欧洲、帮助新独立的非洲和亚洲国家、铁幕解体之后帮助前苏东阵营国家，以及在发生破坏性危机之后帮助拉丁美洲和亚洲。在当前的这次危机中，我们做出 154 个新的贷款承诺，向需要贷款的国家拨付了 1820 亿美元，向 90%的成员国提供了技术援助。而今，我们共有 188 个成员国 。
　　The beauty of the new multilateralism is that it can build on the old—but go further. The existing instruments of cooperation have proven extremely successful over the past decades, and they must be preserved and protected. That means that institutions like the IMF must be brought fully up to date, and made fully representative of the changing dynamics of the global economy. We are working on that.
　　新多边主义的优点在于它可以建立在旧的多边主义基础之上，但可以走的更远。现有的合作工具在过去几十年里已经被证明是非常有效的。因此，基金组织这样的机构必须与时俱进，能充分代表全球经济的变化。我们正在朝此目标努力。
　　More broadly, the new multilateralism must be made more inclusive—encompassing not only the emerging powers across the globe, but also the expanding networks and coalitions that are now deeply embedded in the fabric of the global economy. The new multilateralism must have the capacity to listen and respond to those new voices.
　　更广泛地说，新多边主义必须更具包容性，不仅包括世界各地的新兴大国，同时也须纳入那些深深植根于全球经济组织中的不断扩大的网络和联盟。新多边主义必须有能力倾听，并对新的声音作出反应。
　　The new multilateralism also needs to be agile, making sure that soft and hard forms of collaboration complement rather than compete with each other. It needs to promote a long-term perspective and a global mentality, and be decisive in the short term—to overcome the temptation toward insularity and muddling through.
　　新的多边主义也需要保持灵活性，确保软的和硬的合作方式可以互为补充，而不是相互竞争。它需要鼓励长远视角和全球性思维，并在短期内形成果断作风——克服偏狭和得过且过的倾向。
　　Fundamentally, it needs to instill a broader sense of social responsibility on the part of all players in the modern global economy. It needs to instill the values of a global civil market economy—a global “guild hall”, as it were.
　　从根本上说，新多边主义应赋予现代全球经济中的所有参与者广泛的社会责任感。它还需建立起一种全球民众市场经济的价值观念，成为一个全球的“行会公所”。
　　What might this mean in practice? It clearly means many things, starting with all global stakeholders taking collective responsibility for managing the complex channels of the hyperconnected world.
　　在实践中，如何实现这一多边主义？这显然需要很多工作，首先，全球利益相关者需要共同担负起管理超级互联世界的种种复杂传导渠道的责任。
　　For a start, that means a renewed commitment to openness, and to the mutual benefits of trade and foreign investment.
　　首先，各方还需要对开放原则以及贸易和外国投资的互惠互利意义作出新的承诺。
　　It also requires collective responsibility for managing an international monetary system that has traveled light years since the old Bretton Woods system. The collective responsibility would translate into all monetary institutions cooperating closely—mindful of the potential impact of their policies on others.
　　各方还应担负起集体管理国际货币体系的责任，如今的体系与旧的布雷顿森林体系已经相去甚远。集体责任感能促成所有货币机构的更紧密合作，从而注重各自政策对其他机构的影响。
　　In turn, that means we need a financial system for the 21st century. What do I mean by that?
　　再进一步，这还意味着我们需要建立一个 21 世纪的金融体系。这是什么意思？
　　I mean a financial system that serves the productive economy rather than its own purposes, where jurisdictions only seek their own advantage provided that the greater global good prevails and with a regulatory structure that is global in reach. I mean financial oversight that is effective in clamping down on excess while making sure that credit gets to where it is most needed. I also mean a financial structure in which industry takes co-responsibility for the integrity of the system as a whole, where culture is taken as seriously as capital, and where the ethos is to serve rather than rule the real economy.
　　我的意思是建立一个服务于生产性经济活动而非自身利益的金融体系，在此体系下，一个管辖区只有在顾全全球利益的基础上才会去寻求自己的利益，并且，这个体系还应具有一个有全球影响力的监管框架。这个金融监管框架应能确保制止金融过度，同时又让最需要的人获得信贷。在这个结构下，金融业作为一个整体担负着维护体系完整性的共同责任，在这个金融结构下，对文化的重视程度将与资本一样，业界的风尚应是为实体经济服务，而不是统治实体经济。
　　This has special resonance right here in the City of London. As a financial center with global reach, it must be a financial center with global responsibility. And with all due respect and admiration, that goes beyond hiring a Canadian to head the Bank of England!
　　在伦敦市，上述设想应能激起尤其热烈的共鸣。作为一个有着全球影响力的金融中心，伦敦应该秉承一种全球责任感。除了聘请一个加拿大人做英格兰银行行长（对此我深表敬意和钦佩），我们还需要更多的努力。
　　We also need the new 21st century multilateralism to get to grips with big ticket items like climate change and inequality. On these issues, no country can stand alone. Combating climate change will require the concerted resolve of all stakeholders working together—governments, cities, corporations, civil society, and even private citizens. Countries also need to come together to address inequality. As but one example, if countries compete for business by lowering taxes on corporate income, this could make inequality worse.
　　我们还需要运用新的 21 世纪的多边主义去重点解决一些大的问题，如气候变化和不平等。在这些问题上，任何国家都不能单独行动。应对气候变化要求所有利益相关者的共同努力的决心，这些相关者包括政府、城市、企业、民间团体，进而包括每个公民。各国也需要走到一起，共同解决不平等问题。举一个例子，如果各个国家竞相通过降低企业所得税争取业务，这样会导致不平等现象恶化。
　　Overall, the kind of 21st century cooperation I am thinking of will not come easy. It might get even harder as time passes, when the curtains fall on this crisis, when complacency sets in--even as the seeds of the next crisis perhaps are being planted.
　　总的来说，我所思考的 21 世纪的合作并不简单。随着时间的推移，当危机落幕，当沾沾自喜情绪出现时——甚至，这也可能为下一次危机播下了种子——这种合作可能会更困难。
　　Yet given the currents that will dominate the coming decades, do we really have a choice? A new multilateralism is non-negotiable.
　　然而，鉴于上述将主导未来几十年的涌流，我们真的有选择的余地吗？没有，新的多边主义是唯一的选择。
　　Conclusion
　　结论
　　On that note, let me end by going back again to the beginning—to Keynes and that famous tryst with destiny.
　　关于这一点，让我再次回到开始提到的凯恩斯和那个著名的与命运的风云际会。
　　Referring to that great multilateral moment, he noted that “if we can so continue, this nightmare, in which most of us here present have spent too much of our lives, will be over. The brotherhood of man will have become more than a phrase.”
　　关于那次伟大的多边时刻，他指出：“如果我们能够这样继续下去，那么这场我们在座的多数人经历了太久时间的梦魇终将过去。四海一家，将不再只是一个口号。”
　　History proved Keynes right. Our forefathers vanquished the demons of the past, bequeathing to us a better world—and our generation was the main beneficiary.
　　历史证明，凯恩斯是正确的。我们的祖先击败了过去时代的魔鬼，给我们留下一个更美好的世界——我们这一代正是主要的受益者。
　　We are where we are today because of the foundation laid by the generation before us.
　　我们之所以有今天，是因为我们的先辈为我们奠定了基础。
　　Now it is our turn—to pave the way for the next generation. Are we up to the challenge? Our future depends on the answer to that question.
　　现在，轮到我们为下一代铺平道路了。我们是否做好了迎接挑战的准备？我们的未来
　　取决于我们对这个问题的回答。
　　Thank you very much.
　　谢谢大家！

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